Total industry inventory stands at 170.686 billion yuan, up 11.32% year-over-year; average inventory turnover is 900 days, 60% of enterprises face price inversion, 58% of distributors still see rising inventory, and 81.3% of distributors list protecting cash flow as their core goal for the second half. The logic of the stock-pressing model no longer works—but the real question isn't whether it will return, it's that most distributors' cash flow can't survive twelve months. This article sorts through the collapse camp versus the cyclical camp and lays out three paths forward: brands helping channels sell goods to consumers, distributors shifting from stockpiling for margin to fulfillment and service, and manufacturer-distributor relationships being re-signed to share risk.
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